621M QUOTES • UNDERDOG SCRAPER • HERMES SPARK
| Matchup | Status | Home Win Prob | Model Pick | Edge | Moneyline | Weather |
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| Pick a date and load the slate. | ||||||
| Player | Market / Stat | Line | Recommended Pick | Win Hit Rate | Expected Value | Kelly Stake |
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| Loading Underdog scraped picks… | ||||||
Underdog lines are flat payouts (3x for 2-leg, 6x for 3-leg). Exploiting LOWER on Hits/Bases (69-74% hit rate) creates asymmetric compound +EV compared to the break-even requirement (57.7% per leg).
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| Market | Direction | Bets | Win Rate | Realized ROI | Execution Strategy |
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| Loading backtest… | |||||
| Player | Stat | Line | Type | Fair Over / Under | Signal | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick Demon / Goblin / Standard. | ||||||
| Rank | Player | Games | Total HR | HR/Game Rate | Devig Fair Odds | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading power leaders… | ||||||
Overall MLB HR rate is ~12-15% of games per qualified hitter sample. Elite power hitters homer in 22%–32% of games. Note: the measured HR-over backtest is currently −28.95% ROI over 675 bets — this board is research-only until a rule shows positive out-of-sample edge. See the Market Matrix tab for the measured backtest.
MyBookie/XBet offer +3300 on low-power hitters with <1% HR probability. These carry massive negative EV. Only attack proven Power Tier hitters.
| Book | Settled Quotes | Bettor ROI | Note |
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| Loading… | |||
| Execution Book | Settled Quotes | Bettor Win Rate | Bettor ROI |
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